Weather Story
Now that you have reviewed the TAF and some observational data, you have a basic idea of the state of the atmosphere, which we refer to as your “mental model.” From this, we can build the “weather story,” which describes the current conditions and how they are expected to evolve over the forecast period. We'll start by viewing satellite images and products.
Keep in mind what we've seen so far:
- Stable conditions with weak flow at low levels
- The presence of stratus at 1500 ft, which has brought conditions below VFR
- Dry air in the middle and upper levels of the troposphere, which will promote radiational cooling and should help maintain the stratus layer
One question that we need to answer is whether the stratus layer will reduce radiational cooling at the surface and suppress fog formation. The 00 UTC METAR indicated that the surface dew point was just 1 degree C lower than the temperature, so very little additional cooling is necessary for fog to form.
Next we'll examine the satellite imagery to determine the areal extent of any clouds and possible fog.